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特定区域内空间碎片仿真分析

Simulations of Debris Distributions in Specific Space Regions

  • 摘要: 针对载人航天的典型区域,利用目前流行的空间碎片模型对空间碎片分布进行了初步仿真,得到了一些定量的仿真结果,并对其进行了初步的分析;得到以下初步结论:400 km高度、倾角为40°~50°区域内,飞行器每年遭遇分米至米级尺度的空间碎片的概率为千万分之一量级;每年遭遇厘米级尺度的空间碎片的概率为百万分之一量级;每年遭遇毫米级尺度的空间碎片的概率为百分之四左右;每年遭遇0.1 mm级尺度的空间碎片约2次;每年遭遇0.01 mm级尺度的空间碎片约550~600次。可供相关工程应用部门参考。

     

    Abstract: We carry out preliminary simulations of space-debris distributions in typical space regions for the manned space flights.The simulations are based on a prevalent model (ORDEM2000).Simulation results show that for a spacecraft at an altitude of 400 km and an orbital inclination between 40° and 50°,(1) its annual probability of collision with debris with sizes of decimeters to meters is on the order of magnitude of 10-7,(2) the annual probability of collision with debris with sizes of centimeters is ~10-6,(3) the annual probability of collision with debris with sizes of millimeters is about 4×10-2,(4) the expected annual number of collisions with debris with sizes of ~0.1 mm is about two times,and (5) the expected annual number of collisions with debris of ~0.01 mm is about 550~600.The results should be valuable for relevant application sectors.

     

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