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利用端部效应改善的最小二乘外推模型进行UT1-UTC预报

A Least Squares Extrapolation Model for UT1-UTC Prediction Method with Consideration of the Edge-effect

  • 摘要: 现有的UT1-UTC预报模式在进行周期项与残差项拟合分离时,通常没有考虑最小二乘拟合序列的端部畸变现象(数据处理中称为端部效应),预报精度难以取得较大改善。针对最小二乘拟合存在的端部畸变现象,首先采用时序分析方法在UT1-UTC序列两端进行数据延拓,形成一个新序列,然后用新序列求解最小二乘外推模型系数,最后再联合最小二乘外推模型及神经网络对UT1-UTC序列进行预测。结果表明,在UT1-UTC序列端部增加延拓数据,可以有效地抑制最小二乘拟合序列的端部畸变,相对于常规的最小二乘外推模型,基于端部效应改善的最小二乘(Edge-effect Corrected Least Squares,ECLS)外推模型的UT1-UTC中长期预报精度改善明显。

     

    Abstract: The prediction accuracy of UT1-UTC can be easily affected by the edge distortion of least squares (LS) fitting time-series, referred to as edge-effect in the data-processing domain, when periodic oscillations and residuals are separated by LS fitting. In order to alleviate the edge-effect, the original UT1-UTC time-series is first extended on both boundaries by using a time-series analysis model in this paper. A LS extrapolation model is then set up using the extended time-series. Finally UT1-UTC predictions are obtained by employing the combination of the edge-effect correlated least squares (ECLS) model and a stochastic predication technology such as neural network (NN). The numerical experiments demonstrate that the edge-effect can be noticeably alleviated with the developed method. In addition, the accuracy of the UT1-UTC short-term predictions is comparable with that by the conventional LS extrapolation-based prediction algorithm. However, the medium- and long-term predictions are significantly more accurate than those obtained by the proposed ECLS extrapolation-based prediction solution.

     

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