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基于极限学习机的极移中长期预报

Medium-and Long-term Prediction of Polar Motion Using Extreme Learning Machine

  • 摘要: 传统的极移预报多是基于最小二乘外推和自回归等线性模型,但极移包含了复杂的非线性成分,线性模型的预报效果往往不甚理想。将一种新型神经网络极限学习机(Extreme Learning Machine,ELM)用于极移中长期预报。首先利用最小二乘外推模型对极移序列进行拟合,获得趋势项外推值,然后采用极限学习机对最小二乘拟合残差进行预报,最终的极移预报值为趋势项外推值与残差预报值之和。将极限学习机的预报结果同反向传播(Back Propagation,BP)神经网络与地球定向参数预报比较活动(Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign,EOP PCC)的预报结果进行对比,结果表明,极限学习机用于极移中长期预报是高效可行的。

     

    Abstract: Linear models such as least squares (LS) extrapolation and autoregressive (AR) models are used to predict Earth's polar motion. However, polar motion predictions obtained by linear models are not fully satisfactory owing to the non-linear and non-stationary variations in polar motion. In this paper, the extreme learning machine (ELM), a new training algorithm for single hidden layer feedback neural network (SLFN), is employed to predict medium-and long-term polar motion. The LS extrapolation model is first employed to separate a linear trend, Chandler and annual wobbles (CW and AW) from observed polar motion time-series. The extracted linear trend, CW and AW are then predicted by using the above-mentioned LS extrapolation model. Secondly, the ELM is used for modeling and forecasting the residual time-series obtained by subtracting the LS extrapolation curve from the original polar motion data. In ELM training some special issues such as generation of training patterns and topology of the network for enhanced medium-and long-term prediction of polar motion are taken into consideration. The subsequently forecasted residuals are then added to the LS extrapolation so as to obtain the predicted values of polar motion. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented method, the results of the predictions of polar motion are analyzed and compared with those obtained by the back propagation (BP) neural network and Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (EOP PCC). The results show that the predictions are comparable with or better than those obtained by other existing prediction methods and techniques in terms of the mean absolute error (MAE).

     

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