THE PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY MAXIMUM AND PEAK TIME IN 22ND SOLAR CYCLE

This paper discusses the characters and difference of solar cycle and geomagnetic cycle from the 13th to the 22nd solar cycles. The self-excitation threshold autoregressive time series model and autoregression method using maximum entropy spectrum are used. To simulate and predict that the peak time of the annual average value of geomagnetic aa index is in the spring of 1994 or the autumn of 1993. The maximum is 26-29. The 22nd geomagnetic cycle is a middle active cycle.